2015 Presidential Elections special. 2. What lies ahead?

Viral Dhanjee

OPINION:

There may be honour amongst thieves, but is there honour amongst politicians?
James out. Michel in. – won by the system, not at the polling booths?
What lies ahead:
ROS. --- POU ANVOYE, PA POU ANVOYE?
James Michel warned earlier this year, ‘’People in glass houses do not throw stones’’. This was meant solely for the break-away cluster of ex- SPPF/PL ministers and technicians who surfaced as the new political party, ‘Lalyans Seselwa’. There were massive expectations from the public that we were in for a spectacular fireworks show, in that for once we would know the inner (maybe even dirty) secrets of the SPUP/SPPF/PL era. Thus far, people have been disappointed. Campaigning has started earnestly, elections will come and go, but no stones will be thrown. Those concerned would be good boys and pay heed to Michel’s warning.
But what are these stones that Michel cautions against throwing? Skeletons no doubt, which if known to the larger public would raise questions never seen before in the light of day to cast people in bad light, thereby influencing the psyche of their core support . But all politicians have skeletons, and as an understood rule, they do not put each other’s skeletons in view, even if the difference is ( as we have just found out) between winning and losing an election. Michel’s fear that Ton Pat and his gang of ex-SPPF/PL leaders were about to spill the beans was totally unfounded.
But on the eve of the Presidential Elections the beans that SPPF/Pl would have not wanted spilt are probably those that would have to do with the mechanism at the disposal of SPPF/PL that always helps them win elections. Everyone, even the observers (and therefore the world) believes the elections are peaceful and free, BUT NEVER FAIR..
A statistically-impossible electoral list which has nearly as many registered voters as there are Seychellois is the sorest point of the election; or should I say was, as it no more appears in any political party’s agenda. All speeches during the various party conventions conveniently omit this issue. Always advanced as a reason for losing elections by those that do, this old record is set to be played again -- after the 5th. December, 2015
Is it back to business as usual? Or is it an element of a strategy not to be shared with the citizenry? Only time will tell, but the question won’t go away. One wonders, knowing each and every person in Ton Pat's top echelon team ex-SPPF/PL would have been instrumental in dealing blow-after-blow to opposition parties in every election, why they now come out and subject themselves to the humiliation of playing on such an unlevel playing field. On the other hand Wavel and his SNP, eye the seats in the National Assembly and are in a particular hurry to reclaim them. This much he stated very clearly, which led the last ‘poul’ leaving his ‘kazo poul’ in rather a hurry earlier this year. The
unleveled playing field does not prevent him from meeting that goal and suddenly has no problem with the unleveled playing field.
This issue haunts the entire opposition electorate. This time around, by reminding the politicians of their previous excuse long before the elections (and the fact they have done nothing to remedy the situation, other than to glorify a new electoral law that is a lot worse than the previous one) the electorate is telling the politicians to come up with a different set of excuses for not winning ... next time. People also remember that opposition party leaders have previously said their main objective is to achieve change in government, regardless of who led the change; that they should and would unite. Opposition voters believe this would have won the election for them, regardless of the implausible voter register. Yet when push came to shove, the opposition parties could not form the alliance in spite of one of them having 'Lalyans' as its name.
Whilst no stones are being thrown, the usual intimidation and scare tactics of the ruling party seem to be in full swing. It is believed that the ruling party was behind the vicious attempts of humiliation and intimidation on the person of Ton Pat, and to a lesser extent against Mrs Amesbury as well.
It would appear this is because much of Ton Pat.’s (a veteran SPUP/SPPF/PL leader, minister and Central Committee member) support appears to be coming from the PL party, which appears to be seriously haemorrhaging.
As the fortress wall built by Ex-President FAR, on which Michel sits, crumbles, Michel will surely regret not having built his own walls.
That the PL would want Lalyans Seselwa out of the picture is understandable, for if it were so they, PL, would have much more confidence and a better chance of winning.
But WHY Mrs. Amesbury? Is because folks who will vote for Mrs. Amesbury in the first round would have traditionally voted SNP (in the absence of any other options). It makes sense to believe that , for this reason, PL would rather Mrs Amesbury were not around, allowing her votes to go to SNP as in previous elections. Opposition votes that do not go to SNP acts as a nucleus for the emergence of a STRONG SECOND OPPOSITION POLITICAL PARTY.
Other presidential hopefuls seem to have been spared the wrath of PL.
These intimidation and fear tactics could well be part of a well-thought-out plan to unbalance and distract the presidential hopeful from the job of campaigning.
Most interesting is the likelihood that the elections will, for the first time in the history of presidential Elections in the Third republic, go into a SECOND ROUND. Even the SPPF/PL appear to think so and they expect to make it to the second round. A second round would be a great plus for democracy in the Seychelles and forever change the way people in the Seychelles vote.
It is expected that in the coming days much effort on the part of PL will be geared towards one thing and one thing only ; influencing who the opponent that they, PL, face in the second round. They have a clear preference.
The most direct evidence that SPPF/PL expects the election to go into the second round is their decision to field PDM. Whilst, like in the last National Assembly Elections (2011), the participation of
PDM gave credibility (at least in the eyes of the international community) to the election, so too this time it will serve this purpose --should all other political parties decide to boycott the election at the last minute – and there are sufficient justifiable reasons for doing so. Boycott is a very important and powerful tool but only has importance, and can only be meaningful, if everyone is on board; a fact that escaped SNP in the last elections with disastrous consequences for itself and, more importantly, for the opposition. Hopefully, no party decides to boycott this very important election. It served no purpose then and will not now.
Fielding of PDM would have other objectives. PDM clearly targets the four odd thousand votes it got last time. But the big question is, ’If PDM does not participate, who would its four odd thousand supporters vote for?’ Most unlikely to ever vote either SPPF/PL or SNP in the first round of the elections, they would naturally drift towards other candidates giving these candidates a higher chance of making it to the second round whilst reducing the chances of SNP making it-- something PL clearly do not want.
Besides, the votes obtained by PDM in the first round automatically become a pool of voters that certainly would be targeted for the second round. In a scenario playing out between SPPF/Pl against SNP, it would have logic historical sense if this pool of PDM votes chose not to vote for SNP. One must wonder if people actually vote for change, if they ever vote for what is best for the country? Showing that, in spite of all the empowerment and being emboldened, the electorate is still very much divided along party lines.
The third indication that the SPPF/PL expects the election to go to a second round is the New Elections dates declared by Gappy, the Electoral Commissioner, barely 24 hrs after fighting off a court petition to extend the same. Gappy is a brilliant SPPF/PL technician who has singlehandedly won the last three elections for SPPF/PL. Mr. Gappy is a nice, loving man, but believe you me, he was not appointed chief of the EC for being such a darling.
The opposition rejoices the new election dates as a victory of theirs, allowing them time to produce some memorabilia, as if this is what it takes to win elections. Would Gappy have gifted them that much? It is believed that new dates are crucial for PL, or at the very least appear to be throwing a bone to the opposition.
The campaign of personal attacks on candidates seems to have backfired, and it is unlikely there will be much of it in the days before the elections. It may have had an effect on the SPPF/PL supporters, as well, who would like to see their party win, but through a clean and fair election. Clearly attempts, both overt and covert, will be used to influence who reaches the second round. Why wait for election day if you can buy, or beat the hell out of your opponent before then; anything that might be better than having to do another coup d’eat. Serious money will be on offer to candidates to stand down, but it will have to be big money, bigger than what the sponsors are offering and bigger than what they stand to gain if elected.
It is believed if Ton Pat makes it to the second round against Michel, he will be assured all the votes other opposition candidates received in the first round. Wavel and his SNP do not have this luxury if they stood against Michel in the second round, as it is believed the the Lalyans supporters would never vote SNP, would not vote for change. It is a numbers game.
It very much matters to PL which party contests the second round against it. It makes perfect sense PL would want to face a tested opponent; one who has never been able to deliver for supporters and the people of Seychelles. In that sense, Wavel and his SNP have always been the darling of FAR/JAM and SPPF/PL. It is not that Wavel loves the guy -- probably far from it -- but JAM really loves Wavel to bits, because in Wavel he sees a ‘bef’ (a cow) he can milk anywhere, anytime, any day. In fact this is what led JAM to declare what he did to the Mauritian ‘Weekend’ early this year. It is a numbers game and Wavel just cannot produce the numbers to deliver.
Presidential hopefuls are now in the process of declaring their running mate. Will these create any ripples? Will a running mate actually contribute meaningfully toward the victory of a presidential hopeful, or are they simply piggy-backing?
Only two days before nomination day, and on one hand many people remain hopeful to see an SNP/Lalyans partnership, whilst on the other many want to see SPPF/PL field another team other than Michel/Faure. If indeed PL is haemorrhaging because of the unpopularity of Michel, then a new team might reverse that and render Lalyans irrelevant, as its main problem seems to be with Michel and not SPPF/PL.
Besides, many in the SPPF/PL camp seem to have a problem with VP Danny Faure as the running mate of JAM as they suspect that JAM will ‘’pass baton’’ and hand the presidency over to VP Danny Faure during his tenure. They do not need to be reminded that a vote for JAM is in fact a vote for Danny Faure. This is totally unfair as none would have any justification for such a sentiment. Danny Faure remains a brilliant strategist, intelligent and very capable person.
In the absence of public debates between the presidential hopefuls and their running mates, the electorate is once more totally lost as to what the various candidates stand for on various issues of national importance. The electorate will be voting, regardless of being denied the necessary information needed for informed decision-making and a total absence of public dialogue between the electorate and the candidates. In this day and age, this is totally unacceptable. Political debates must become a norm.
The arrival back home of our three compatriots from the Egyptian prison is anticipated anytime soon.
8th. November, 2015
Viral V. Dhanjee, Union Vale.

Comments

  1. Tenure Michelle will be over very soon before Christmas.....and I can't wait to witness this huge event.......this Christmas I'll be putting Misel-toe in my back pocket so all the PL thugs who don't like it can come kiss my ASS.

    Camel!

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  2. If there is no change of government after this election, there is only one man to blame, - Ramkalawan. His obstinacy to be a Presidential Candidate in every election has become an obstacle to change and PL loves this. For f..k sake Ramkalawan give your party a chance to fight this election under a new candidate.

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    1. 100% agree with you.

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  3. As long there are three days policy to vote in a small island with 70+ voters there will be fraud. Parti LEPEP PA KOUYON! In the past we voted with KANNET and SPUP could not make any trick. They lost big! Then came SPPF and PL wanted a three days voting!

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  4. Marie Antoinette Rose is a bloody crook; She owes SEYPEC R8 million for Beau Vallon Station and James told Benoiton to write it off. If PL wins Kreole will pay the conséquences with high petrol gas prices increase in road taxes and all sorts of taxes to come Kreole pas faire zot liki dans boite vote Zot pour pler larme di sans
    pour tous sa ki zote pe gagne Ton Pat bring this matter in your PPB

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  5. Gustave De Comarmond you should be a shame liki ou manman Your father Pierre De Comarmond fucked your sister Jeanine and gave it to Danny Faure: Jeanette your mum got depression when she saw Pierre in bed with Jeanine pe kaple kaple kaple fucking Gustave stop your demagogic liki ou manman Ou fenm i dire ki ou un grand pilon: Lenguet ou manman

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  6. Viral you are absolutely right that Lalyans think that they tinye dife avek Jelly Sa encore un bane donner gren To win election politicians must act ruthlessly Ki zot pe faire sa bane kalele ek toutoune Zot pour gagne 500 votes sa bane lakarlen Cet un vraie nation de singe, zako, monkees, baboon. Danny Faure will never become President because Glenny told his Mauritian friends that the Country can never be ruled by a Mazambique comment Danny Apres election James will put Jean Paul in the place of Danny Continuer faire ou bane trvaille sale Michel pour metre ou deor

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  7. So the old scoundrel is celebrating his 80th birthday together with is accomplice, their faces look like the creole says 'pareille pesser'. Once again Michel said it all in his speech "ou enmane sa paye cote y ete", - Yes, Seychelles is now in a real shit!

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  8. James is fucking monkey, monster, evil; demon; satan all blended in one hell of a Dracula; A man cursed for taking his son Jude life, He is tormented every night with evil spirit, The Malgache sting and turbos at his bedside when Lise Bastienne is sucking an old pipe: The Pope Francis told him to go and repent his sins with his people and asked for foregiveness, The Pope told him that he is a Satan who has no place even in hell. Go and grow fish, talk to the ocean you carricature of the new world order; It was the most horror film that I ever watched when the internationql community was laughing in his face; A disgrace at best but a disaster at worst Sa Zako; Monkey; Monkey and Monkey for CNN,

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  9. ...........and now we have to deal with small and big envelops.
    ...........all sorts of trikmardaz and manboulouk.
    ...........on the night before counting they will tell us' al dormi boner i annan le lou dan fernwar......reste andan pa sorti de'or....pareiy granmoun lanton ti dir marmaiy.

    All these are just to switch boxes and envelops.
    Monsieur Morin is either blind,death or in dementia mode. Maybe bipolar who knows. PL should have given him some koolaid from kanson nilon fanm.

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  10. Pierre Laporte ,sacked and then re bought by Michel......praised Michel economic desion ,,thesex same decidesion that bankrupt our economy...and had stagnated our economy ,,create mass poverty ,,astronomic debts,,,,and dependency of foreign aids .or BONDAIDS......Pierre Laporte comments show that he is a bad economist which explain why he was sacked...........When a supposed economist tells us that dependency of foreign aid is productivity ,,there is something wrong..when he tells us banrupcy was okay ..then he is a bad economist ....
    A country depedneing on foeriengn aids cannot proclaim it has economic success....Foreign aids ,Laporte means that our economy is in shit lse there would be no need to be bailed out by IMF,World Bank.......When a country id being bailed out by IMF ,it means its economy is in shit ;Laporte.....

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  11. Laporte said"this was hard time for Seychelles"refering to the 2008 bankruptcy of Seychelles....But Laporte forget to note that the hard time he was referring to,was the effect of Pls policies.......and Michel has not been able to fix his mess as we speak..Proof :Seychelles still depedent of IMF ,World Bank...and the reason we still being bailed out by Imf ,is because our economy is still in shit.....Since 2008 banrupocy Michel has not been able to get us out of the crisis he created....
    Note Laporte ,you failed to checked into the 2,4 billions stolen by pl from our coffers and lies in swiss bank....Billions that could pay back our astrom^nomic debts created by ;WHO? chief fakeocomist Michel and partyl by Laporte himself as minister before sacked by Michel for incompentency....There he is bribed ,coming to tell us that bankruptcy ,Depedency of foreign aids are successs......can one trust a stupid economist as Laporte...? since when is dependency of foreign charity an economic success lAPORTE ,,wHERE IS THE WORLD HAVE YOU HEARD SUCH SHIT?......
    iS SEYCHELLES RICHEER THAN BEFORE 2008?iS SEYCHELLOIS BETTER OFF THAN BEFORE 2008?dOES SEYCHELLES ECONOMY PROPEROUS THAN 2008?aRE SEYCHELLES LIVING BETTER THAN BEFORE 2008?iS HIGH CRIMES,A SUCESS?iS DEPEDENCY OF bondaids AS SUCESS?iS DEVALUATION OF OUR RUPEE AS SUCCESS?iS HARD DRUGS INCREASE ,POVERTY ,A SUCCESS?iS iS AN EMPTY ANTIONA LRESERVE A SUCCESS?..If IT SI lAPORTE ,,WE BETTER UNDERSTAND WHY yOU AND mICHEL FAILED OUR ECONOMY ...OFR FIALUTRES FOR YOU ARE SUCCESS........aND PROBABLY CURRPTION IS ECONOMIC GORWTH...

    hIDE YOURSELF lAPORTE ,,YOU FAILED US ,BUT YOU FAILED ALSO mICHEL ,,WHICH EXPLAINED WHY YOU WERE SACKED WITHOUT WARNING .......hOW MUCH HAS mICHEL PAID YOU TO COME AND TAKE TRASH DONKEY?

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  12. Boulle calls for UNITY govt-----why now Boulle and not the prvious election with one party rule you benefit from?--UNITY government starts with UNITED Oppostion Boulle ...

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  13. Laporte said ,Ambury income tax cancellation would generate a lost of I billion ---it is still under the 2,5 billions Pl robbed and Pieree Laporte never showed interest to search for the money....
    +3 salary Laporte will cost about the same -------Pension for life of MPS ,,,,will cost us ,in 20 years hundreds of millions Laporte.

    Fakeoconomy that you and Michel gave us...keeps us in stagnation,on foreign aids,,,with astronomic debts.........and has increase poverty,,,,,,,,Devaluation had made many poorere Laporte.
    That we still depending of foreign aids ,,shows that both Laporte and Michel failed to fixed the chaos Michel created

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  14. I read on Seychelles today the audacious ponderings of Lionet and Morgan in reply to Alexia's well researched corruptive practices in the allocation of our land. As an ex officer of MLUH let me wade in the conversation. Morgan lies when he said that commercial properties are "allocated" to normal Seychellois on a commercial rate. Let me remind you that it is the policy that All commercial land plots are subjected to a public tender. Morgan you are a liar, the plots allocated to your wife did not go through that process and name me one "normal" Seychellois that has benefitted from this government like your wife. You are are thief and a conman. Lionet, when your father reclaimed land at Roche Caiman without permission to extend his business you turned a blind eye. You abused government vehicle, smoking drugs all the while and elevated to Ministerial material for your troubles. What a fucking hypocrite you are. How can you mix music studio and residential together you moron. Did the planning authority approve this? I wont be surprised. We cannot vote in these hypocrites, thieves, for another five years. Goviden, when the government changes you will have to account for a whole lot of things, the 500k you pocketed from Siva will be the least of your problems. Have a good day, I know you come here, your face is unmistakable

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    Replies
    1. Perera is out of the country marking time. He and Govinden know well that their days are numbered.

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  15. Laporte has been a big failure, once as Minister of Finance, and again as CEO of Sacos. This is why he was licking Michel's arse after he was sacked. Anyone in his position would have shown some dignity and pride by refusing to chit-chat with Michel after sacking. Better to become a refugee or diaspora than to lick Michel's arse!

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  16. All Presidential Candidates should challenge James Michel in their PPB for a debate on Television and everyone will know that he is refusing to debate because he does not have the skill to debate and cannot debate truthfully. This will surely embarrass him and his lackeys. A president who cannot write and speak for himself unless he has a teleprompter, is a fake.

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  17. He is a bad orator and lack political maturity and culture..........he knows deep inside himself that he is responsible for the catastrophic state of the nation........he can not defence hs failures and crooks.
    And of course he got a dictatorial DNA,... .a dictator does not debates but dictates... . B .he feels too important,about other candidates to sit around the same same table to drdate ideas.........ideas of others are not important..............that shows what for a psychopath he is.................he is a coward....who proclaims he has done good toxthe country,but can not come to defence , his record...........well he can not come to debate,for he knows he has been a gross failure....

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  18. 5,08
    FAURE will never be President because he has chosen to be a slave an ideology of thecpast.He seems not ablecto free himself from the chain Renes put a round his neck.He cafirst n not be hiscown man............he will need to detoxicate himself communisim thinking first,before he can even dream of being President...............how thatcthe Ec Fraud machine has been exposed,his dream of being future president by appointment has vanished.....

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  19. 15:17
    But none of the oppositions have the guts to ask for a debate.
    The people of Seychelles are hungry for a debate! REAL DEBATE.
    Most of all I think its the job of the EC to set up one anywhere,be it at Statehouse or dan lakanbiz.What I found out the longer the election day PL is capitalizing,by buying votes from the few uneducated naryen fer obor semen. And all overseas PL thugs are on the way to cast their votes,some are already canvasing by giving drinks and foods! That is the history of SPUP/SPPF alias PARTI LEPEP.

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  20. It is easy to predict that this election will not be free and fair and that the thugs who ravaged the country on June 05, 1977 will remain in power.
    There is not much that the opposition can do about it!
    And the outside world couldn't care less!

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    Replies
    1. 07:57
      You may be spot right as Gill used to say to Jeanne D'arc.

      My grandma was a loyal SDP since the creation in 1964 until she died in 1976. Ever since she voted SPUP,SPPF and PL.

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